During the last two weeks there has been minimal or no rains in most parts of Somalia, marking an early cessation of the Gu 2021 rains which also had a late onset. The rainfall forecast for the next week till end of May, shows no rains in the country. Further, no rains are expected in the month of June according to most forecast models. With a late start, short growing period and an early end of the season, drought conditions which were detected in February, may continue to impact some areas especially in the southern regions where the total rainfall recorded so far is less than the long term average. There is also a great concern in the northern regions which recorded good rains in a period of two weeks before the cessation. SWALIM will carry out an in-depth analysis of the situation in the coming days. Shabelle River: Following a reduction of rainfall amounts in the Ethiopian highlands, there was a subsequent decrease in runoff from the upper reaches of the basin to Somalia. However, flood waters from previous two weeks rainfall are still streaming into Somalia side of the basin. Today, the level in Belet Weyne is 8.25 m and is likely to reach the bank-full level any time from now, with a high risk of flooding in the town. During the last week, a few villages in the upstream parts of Belet Weyne town were affected by flooding with evacuation having taken place. The flood wave from Belet Weyne will be transmitted to the middle and lower reaches in the course of the week and therefore there is a moderate risk of flooding in these areas during this week. The situation could be further exacerbated by weak river embankments and open river banks, which is already causing floods in Jowhar. Juba River: The river levels along the Juba continued to decrease over the last week. The levels are currently slightly above normal and expected to stabilize as the week progresses. Given the rainfall forecast and decreasing trend of river levels there is no risk of flooding along Juba in the coming week.

The Gu rains continued to spread in time and space over the last few days with a few places recording moderate rains in the southern and north western regions. The north eastern and central parts of the country remained dry.   The cumulative rainfall forecast for this week indicates significant spread of the rains to the central and northern parts of the country starting from 18 to 20 April, this will mark the start of the rains in these areas. Some parts of Awdal Region may experience high localized rains of up to 50mm on 19 April 2020, according to the forecast. Similarly, moderate rains are expected over the southern and central parts of the country. In the Ethiopian highland, whose rainfall is largely responsible for increase in river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers inside Somalia, moderate to high rainfall is foreseen in the coming one week.   It is worth noting that, the foreseen rains in the coming week are not sufficient to alleviate the current drought conditions in the country, more rains with good temporal and spatial distribution are required during the season in order to improve the situation. River levels along the Shabelle have increased slightly at Belet Weyne over the last few days, but remains low and below the normal for this period of the year. Along Juba River the levels are within normal for this period. Given the rainfall forecast, a slight increase in the levels for both rivers is expected with no risk of flooding over the next seven days.

The Gu rains continued to spread in time and space over the last few days with some places recording moderate rains. Many parts of Bay, Bakool and Puntland recorded good rains on 19 to 21 April 2021. The Gu rains are yet to start in some areas. Despite the Gu 2021 having started, more than 80 percent of the country is currently experiencing moderate to severe drought conditions This is due to below average 2020 Oct-Dec Deyr rains, followed by a harsh and warmer than normal Jan-Mar Jilaal season, and a delayed start of the current Gu (Mar/Apr-Jun) season with a poor distribution. Worst affected areas include larger parts of Somaliland and Puntland, central regions and Gedo region Currently, water levels along Shabelle river are slightly below average while water levels in the Juba river are within the normal range. The levels in both rivers are expected to increase following the start of Gu rains in the Ethiopian highlands and within Somalia. Preliminary rainfall forecast for the coming months of May and June indicates depressed amounts of rainfall and this may worsen the ongoing drought in many parts of the country. If Gu season rainfall continues to perform poorly, this could lead to a worsening of the current humanitarian situation in Somalia through late 2021, especially in rural areas.

The Gu rains continued to spread in time and space over the last few days with many places recording moderate rains across the country. Notably, good rains were recorded in Puntland and Somaliland between 23rd and 25th of April. However, some parts are yet to receive the Gu rains. The Ethiopian highlands also experienced good rains over the week ending on 25 April 2021. The rains comes as an immediate relief to the drought stricken areas which will see water sources recharge and pasture growth.   The cumulative rainfall forecast for this week indicates significant spread of the rains to Somaliland and Puntland with most of the rains expected fall towards the end of the week. In particular heavy rains are expected in Caluula, Qandala Bossaso and Lasqoray districts on 30 April to 02 May. The central and southern region will see light to moderate rains within the week in forecast. In the Ethiopian highland, whose rainfall is largely responsible for increase in river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers inside Somalia, moderate to high rainfall is foreseen in the coming one week.   It is worth noting that, the observed rains and the foreseen rains in the coming week are not sufficient to alleviate the current drought conditions in the country, more rains with good quantity, temporal and spatial distribution are required during the season in order to meet the current water deficit and improve the situation. River levels along the Shabelle have increased slightly at Belet Weyne over the last few days, but remains low and below the normal for this period of the year. Along Juba River the levels are within normal for this period. Given the rainfall forecast, a slight increase in the levels for both rivers is expected with no risk of flooding over the next seven days.

Some stations in the southern parts of Somalia have recorded light rains over the last one week marking the start of the Gu rainy season which runs from March/April to June. The rains are expected to continue spreading in time and space during the coming weeks. The cumulative rainfall forecast for this week indicates light to moderate rains over the southern parts of Somalia. The rest of the country will remain dry for the same period, apart from scattered light showers expected in north western areas. Moderate rains are also expected in the Ethiopian highland whose rainfall is largely responsible for increase in river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers inside Somalia. River levels are currently low along the Shabelle and Juba Rivers. In Shabelle, the levels are below normal for this period, with many middle and downstream sections reporting dry river beds. Along Juba River the levels are within normal for this period of the year. Given the rainfall forecast, the levels will start to increase towards the end of the coming week with no risk of flooding during the forecast period.

The Gu rains which started in the southern parts of Somalia continued to spread over the last three days. Some stations in the region have so far recorded light to moderate rains, while others remain dry since the onset of the season, in the first week of April. In the northern parts of the country the season has not yet started, with no rains recorded across the stations. The cumulative rainfall forecast for this week indicates spread of the rains to the northern parts of the country. Light to moderate rains are expected over the southern and northern parts of the country, while the central regions remains dry over the same period. Some parts of Awdal Region may experience high localized rains of up to 100mm, according to the forecast. In the Ethiopian highland, whose rainfall is largely responsible for increase in river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers inside Somalia, moderate to high rainfall is foreseen in the coming one week. River levels along the Shabelle have increased slightly at Belet Weyne over the last 2 days, but remains low and below the normal for this period of the year. Along Juba River the levels are within normal for this period. Given the rainfall forecast, a slight increase in the levels for both rivers is expected with no risk of flooding over the next seven days.

Equal chances of average, enhanced and depressed rains expected during the Gu 2021 season. According to the March to May 2021 seasonal forecast issued by IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Center (ICPAC) during the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF57), there are equal chances of receiving either above average, average or below average rainfall amounts in most parts of Somalia. The three-month outlook favours a similar situation for the eastern Ethiopian highlands which are responsible for most of the flow in the Juba and Shabelle rivers in Somalia. A few pockets in Puntland within Bari and Sanaag regions will receive enhanced rains during the season. Warmer than usual season is expected in the northern areas while relatively cooler conditions are likely to occur in the southern parts of Somalia. In contrast, forecast from FEWS NET’s science partners (NOAA/CPC, NASA/GFSC and CHC) indicates: (1) cumulative rainfall during the March-June 2021 long rains/Gu season in Somalia is most likely to be below-average in Somalia, (2) Gu season rainfall onset is likely to be poor or delayed, and (3) there is an increased likelihood that the rainfall amounts will be widely below average in May, which may signal an earlier-than-normal end of the rainfall season. Given the above seasonal rainfall forecast, all sectors should be prepared for both best and worst case scenarios. However, a pessimistic forecast should be considered for humanitarian response planning during Gu 2021. SWALIM and partners will closely monitor the situation and provide shorter timescale forecasts throughout the season.  Sunny and dry weather conditions characterized by higher than average daytime temperatures prevailed over most parts of the country since December 2020. The unusually dry period is as a result of the poor Deyr 2020 rainfall season in many parts of the country. The areas in northern and central Somalia worst affected by poor rainfall during the 2020 Deyr (October-December) season are currently experiencing mild to moderate drought conditions, leading to water shortages and high water prices. The local authorities in these areas have initiated water tracking activities with Sanaag, Bari, Nuugal and Mudug areas being worst affected by the water shortage. The Juba and Shabelle river levels are very low at this time of the year. Parts of the middle and lower reaches of the Shabelle River are reportedly dry leaving insufficient flow to support irrigation along the river. Whether this drought condition deteriorates to a full-fledged drought or improves will depend on the timeliness, amount and distribution of the forthcoming Gu season rainfall. A more detailed downscaled outlook will be released in the coming days by national inter-ministerial meteorological working group (IMMWG) of Somalia. The downscaled outlook is expected to cover sectorial impacts and advisories for the coming season.

In the recent years, floods have prevailed in Somalia hampering both social and economic development. Rainfall intensity in the Ethiopian highlands triggered riverine flooding along the Juba and Shabelle rivers in the last three consecutive years. With climate models projecting an increase of rainfall intensities in the region in the coming yeras, flood events will therefore continue to take place if nothing is done. The presence of open and weak river banks contributes significantly to flooding along these two major rivers. It is therefore of paramount importance to try and reduce or rather prevent these losses due to flood events. With the objective of identifying locations and dimensions of the open and weak points along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers, SWALIM has carried out an assessment using very high resolution (VHR) satellite images. The activity aimed to ascertain the existence of such points and share with intervening agencies and other partners to inform decisions for closure of the points which would see a reduction of flood impacts along the river. Along the Juba River, 46 open points, 8 overflows and another 65 potential overflows were identified. The Juba River assessment also identified over 100 potential breakage points. Further, the team have identified 57 open points, 225 overflows and 74 potential overflows along the Shabelle River. These points need immediate closure or reinforcement before the Gu rainy season which is expected to start in Mid-April 2021. It is worth noting that due to limited availability of VHR images, there has been a delay in completing the assessment of Shabelle River breakages. FAO SWALIM is in the process of procuring images to cover the assessment gap and partners will be notified once the finalized product is ready. SWALIM is pleased to share with you the status of open river points maps along the Juba and Shabelle which can be downloaded from the download links.

Many parts of Somalia are currently experiencing drought conditions, triggered by below average 2020 Deyr (October-December) season rainfall which was characterized by depressed rains with poor spatial and temporal distributions and harsh conditions during the typically dry Jiaall (January-March) season. The worst affected regions include Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Gedo, Mudug, Nuugal, Bari, Toghdheer and Sool which are currently experiencing severe water shortage for domestic use, water for livestock as well as agricultural production. Water and pasture resources are getting depleted in most of the affected pastoral areas leading to abnormal migration of livestock and communities. Currently, water levels in the Juba river are within the normal range, while water levels along Shabelle river are slightly below average. The levels in both rivers are expected to decrease further as no rains are foreseen in the coming two weeks. Drought conditions could worsen if the 2021 Gu (April-June) season rainfall is delayed and/or performs poorly as some forecasts indicate.

A recent flood analysis by SWALIM indicates that there has been an increase in flood frequency and intensity in the last 10 years along the riverine areas of Juba and Shabelle Rivers in Somalia. Recognizing the recurrent flooding along the Shabelle River in the last few years, SWALIM undertook a field survey in Jowhar, Balcad and Afgooye districts. The objective of the survey was to map existing open and weak river embankments in the three districts. We are pleased to share with you the status and impacts of open river points along the Shabelle River in Jowhar, Balcad and Afgooye Districts bulletin and related annexes.